tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post1587615341005593482..comments2024-03-29T06:38:18.116+00:00Comments on Energy Balance: Phosphorus Shortage for Biofuels?Professor Chris Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-70772694154702188872008-05-24T23:27:00.000+01:002008-05-24T23:27:00.000+01:00I'm not sure we reached peak phosphorus.In this po...I'm not sure we reached peak phosphorus.<BR/><BR/>In <A HREF="http://aspoitalia.blogspot.com/2008/03/il-picco-dei-fosfati.html" REL="nofollow">this post</A> (sorry, italian only at the moment) I updated data with the most recent available from IFA and USGS, and found that 1989 peak was surpassed in 2005. Moreover, USGS economically recoverable reserves are estimated to be 18 Tg, much more than the 8 Tg suggested by the Hubbert linearization.<BR/><BR/>The recent increase in the price of fertilizers may suggest that production can no longer keep pace with demand, but just like for oil we will knew we had a peak only looking backward.<BR/><BR/>Nice blog, btw.<BR/><BR/>FrancescoFrancesco Aliprandihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02963949425544842536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-61167021155817994202008-02-22T08:26:00.000+00:002008-02-22T08:26:00.000+00:00Hi Peter.There is a book entitled "The Deep Hot Bi...Hi Peter.<BR/><BR/>There is a book entitled "The Deep Hot Biosphere" written by (the late) Thomas Gold which proposes that methane and other hydrocarbons, including oil (and coal) are produced at some depth within the earth by bacterial action.<BR/><BR/>It is also true that methane among other gases (ethane, CO2, H2, H2O etc.)is emitted from volcanoes, suggesting a geochemical origin.<BR/><BR/>The Russian/Ukrainian "abiogenic" theory of petroleum is also along the lines that chemical action within the earth produces methane, and this may also be the source of petroleum.<BR/><BR/>There are certainly chemical processes that take place in the earth, but of course no one has been able to drill down far enough or extensively enough over the earth's surface to know for certain what is going on.<BR/><BR/>I can't find much in the way of detail about it, but it is said that the Russians are undertaking "deep-drilling" in various regions, including the Caspian coast, by which I mean down to 5 km or so in some places, in order to access "abiogenic" oil, formed at depth.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, the theory is not supported by Western geologists, who think it was all formed from cooking plant and animal remains over millenia.<BR/><BR/>So, yes, these materials probably are produced by internal earth processes to some degree, which some people take comfort from (including Gold) saying that peak oil is nonsense.<BR/><BR/>It's a nice thought, but as I see it, whether we can keep the world running or not depends on how quickly oil and gas can be recovered: i.e. if it takes 100 years to "refill" the giant fields in the Middle East, that won't dig us out of the energy-hole quickly enough that we can keep going, given the decline in oil and gas fields that will almost certainly begin within a decade or so.<BR/><BR/>Hope this is helpful.<BR/><BR/>Chris.Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-35865780487177949582008-02-21T19:00:00.000+00:002008-02-21T19:00:00.000+00:00I was discussing your "peak..." articles today wit...I was discussing your "peak..." articles today with a friend, who had read that the gases, methane, ethane etc, were being continually produced by the action (unspecified)of the "Magna and the Earth's crust". I had never heard of any such phenomenom before and wondered if you could enlighten me. <BR/>Thanks,<BR/>Peter MeliaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com