tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post1806744809469688448..comments2024-03-13T18:55:49.391+00:00Comments on Energy Balance: Oil from Shale: "Nuclear Oil".Professor Chris Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-55965897696778982672011-06-24T10:30:21.857+01:002011-06-24T10:30:21.857+01:00Hi Stefan,
yes, I think you are right. I am aware...Hi Stefan,<br /><br />yes, I think you are right. I am aware of the Passivhaus. I am also a friend of a member of the Green Party in Offenbach. My feeling is that you are far better developed in terms of your economy and future energy planning in Germany that we are in the UK.<br /><br />We can't continue with the business as usual because we will run short of resources long before 100 years. There is a basic problem that there are too many people on the planet using up too much stuff.<br /><br />There is a chilling Hubbert-type (logistic function) analysis that predicts that rather than the human population rising to 9 billion+ by 2050 as the WHO estimates, it will instead peak around 2024 at 7.2 billion and then decline to 2 billion or so by the end of this century.<br /><br />If this proves true, I believe that it will be driven by declining resources - and hence war, famine, disease and so on. But for sure, the days of western capitalism are numbered. The only conceivable growth is away from that and in the development of localised economies and regions.<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-45748829495506106862011-06-24T10:17:00.137+01:002011-06-24T10:17:00.137+01:00Thanks Chris:
as far as I can tell, the known and ...Thanks Chris:<br />as far as I can tell, the known and potentially unknown environmental impacts of tar sand and shale oil mining and refining, heavy oil refining and the increasing risks of deep sea offshore drilling are not well understood in the general public. Even less understood are cumulative (macro scale) impact scenarios for the entire Biosphere, if we continue with business as usual for the next 100 years. It's clear that it is complex, but there is not only the demand side and the economy. For me and many others there also is the question whether the price might get to high. So - my decision for myself is to rather face it. And as far as I can tell the main culprit - the main driver of increasing energy demand, transportation etc. - is forced exponential economic growth, which I see that dispassionately, from a sober scientific point of view, with no ideological angling. A combination of changed lifestyle, economic reform and intelligent technology can do the trick. It doesn't have to be disaster. My grandfather was almost ten when he saw his first car and he did not own one before he was almost 60. He sold it again a few years later. We have gotten used to cars being available always and everywhere, but in fact they have been around for only a relatively short time. The big trick probably will be home heating and/or comprehensive provision of passive house standard housing. But it is doable. It only takes time.<br /><br />Here in Germany the population had, for example, long been opposed to nuclear energy - a stable +-70% for decades. But Fukushima finally was the detonator that blew the fuse. In 2010 the official position still was that nuclear energy was indispensible. It turns out, it is not - at least not for Germany. Ultimately (and maybe that is ideological after all) I think that the people who have to bear the risk and pay the costs also should decide.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024566622504812850noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-51595300982914884142011-06-23T15:34:00.299+01:002011-06-23T15:34:00.299+01:00It;s a complex matter, Stefan. We need to match 30...It;s a complex matter, Stefan. We need to match 30 billion barrels of out a year which are likely to decline in supply by maybe 5% per year beyond the peak. I see no way this can be substituted e.g. we need to find another 4 million barrels a day and e.g. further, the tar sands produce less than half that amount, and that is just to maintain the status quo.<br /><br />We might as well face it, we need to decide how to live differently with less energy and principally with less oil.<br /><br />That is the difficult pill to swallow.<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-205501687205459142011-06-23T12:04:16.737+01:002011-06-23T12:04:16.737+01:00The scenario you are developing here pretty much s...The scenario you are developing here pretty much sounds as if the Earth as we know it basically would have seized to exist at the end of the 100 year period. Electrically heating the ground... I really would like to know the energy balance of this insanity. I will rather opt to use (solar) electricity to power my car. And the largest energy resource is energy saving.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024566622504812850noreply@blogger.com