tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post4770685380180029777..comments2024-03-13T18:55:49.391+00:00Comments on Energy Balance: Why Cheap Oil Does Not Mean that Peak Oil is a Myth.Professor Chris Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-43656693938284562622024-01-23T16:57:24.113+00:002024-01-23T16:57:24.113+00:00"I wanted to express my appreciation for your..."I wanted to express my appreciation for your recent blog post. Your ability to blend expertise with a conversational writing style makes your content not only informative but also enjoyable to read. Thank you for sharing your passion and knowledge with the world!"<br /><a href="https://www.couponsstudio.com/pizza-bolis-coupon" rel="nofollow">pizza boli coupon</a> Coupons Studiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00854424375965085166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-62004336216845273822024-01-23T11:52:24.782+00:002024-01-23T11:52:24.782+00:00"Another masterpiece! Your blog consistently ..."Another masterpiece! Your blog consistently delivers valuable content, and I'm always learning something new from your posts. The depth of your knowledge and the way you communicate complex ideas are truly admirable."<br /><a href="https://www.discountdrift.com/promotions/busy-baby-mat-discount-code" rel="nofollow">busy baby mat coupons</a> Discount Drifthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17809667219387386818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-53495545063309146952024-01-18T22:53:04.379+00:002024-01-18T22:53:04.379+00:00Thank you for shedding light on the nuances of the...Thank you for shedding light on the nuances of the oil industry, and for those looking to balance efficiency with savings, <a href="https://www.frugalishness.com/maya-rudolph-net-worth/" rel="nofollow">maya rudolph net worth</a> might be a valuable resource in their journey.<br />Wishing you continued success in your exploration of energy-related topics.Ashlee Rolfsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11066073147667336746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-44911965921675798952024-01-18T22:51:39.386+00:002024-01-18T22:51:39.386+00:00Your blog post on "Why Cheap Oil Does Not Mea...Your blog post on "Why Cheap Oil Does Not Mean That Peak Oil Is Over" offers a fascinating perspective on the complexities of the oil industry. It's clear that you've delved into the intricacies of this topic. <br /><a href="https://promocodehq.com/seatgeek-promo-code-$40-off" rel="nofollow">Seatgeek Promo Code 40 Off</a>Barbara Nimmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01515250792415879927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-11413686126229834792015-04-10T12:28:56.072+01:002015-04-10T12:28:56.072+01:00Nuclear power seems like stealing from the future ...Nuclear power seems like stealing from the future in a way much worse than sovereign debt, debt can be written off, nuclear waste can not, it seems cruel to subject a society with much less than ours with the burden of it.Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-42344780122761007862015-04-10T12:25:35.139+01:002015-04-10T12:25:35.139+01:00The thing is the Dashas are not just a soviet reli...The thing is the Dashas are not just a soviet relic, the Russians have doubled down on Dashas and organic farming at a time when the convention wisdom would be to sell it all up to mega corporate agriculture. (As is happening now in US puppet Ukraine) Their prescience can't be entirely due to chance.<br /><br />I have to say I agree with the Greens that nuclear can't be part of energy generation.<br />I picture in my head a future society that has to generate what little electricity it can and devote 100% of it to pumping water to cool ponds of nuclear waste. To stop it from despoiling their farmland. Or I Picture what a measly amount of sea level rise it would take to engulf hartlepool power station in the north sea and turn the tees estuary into a radioactive dump. Franticly trying to get somewhere else to take the waste and everywhere else refusing to accept it leaving the only option to just leave it for the sea to take.<br /><br />I know there is talk of accelerator driven sub critical thorium reactors which produce waste with much shorter half lives, but even their boosters put it 40 to 50 years off, which in my mind puts them in the not gonna happen category.Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-12647668369943193242015-04-10T08:21:11.898+01:002015-04-10T08:21:11.898+01:00OK, it came over with real passion!
Indeed, the ...OK, it came over with real passion! <br /><br />Indeed, the Russians having the Dashas helped them through the post-Communist transformation period 25 years ago.<br /><br />Have they anticipated peak oil? Well, maybe, but I think it's just part of hav9ng a partially decentralised system in place, and that's what we need too.<br /><br />I think initially the peak oil etc. truth will scare the hell out of everyone, but once the idea begins to seed, any party that comes out with reality-driven policies will become popular.<br /><br />Yes, the Greens are perceived as being wishy washy, or they don't want fossil fuels or nuclear, and think it can all be done with renewable energy... OK, partly true, but the missing piece which they ignore mention of is that we will have a future with maybe one sixth of the energy available to us that we have now, albeit that this energy must come form low-carbon sources.<br /><br />Key of course, to any realistic energy policy, is that we must e.g. retrofit existing buildings, i.e.we have to work with what we have. We can;t just knock it all down and start again.<br /><br />And re-localisation takes us away from the current massive demand for oil, but also into a future that begins to look a lot more sustainable.<br /><br />We have to get away from degenerative practices and into restorative ways of thinking, e.g. permaculture.<br />Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-16551708611916346972015-04-09T17:31:54.597+01:002015-04-09T17:31:54.597+01:00Whoa, I made loads of mistakes in when typing that...Whoa, I made loads of mistakes in when typing that comment, typed it on my phone, gotta remember to read through before posting.<br /><br />Hopefully you get the jist, I think the most confusing mistake was big was supposed to be being.Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-84285731385213792762015-04-09T15:02:27.702+01:002015-04-09T15:02:27.702+01:00I think the idea that being frank with voters woul...I think the idea that being frank with voters would scare pepole off is incorrect, and it's clear that big all nicey nicey like the greens are trying is not working, its time go get frank and nasty. People say the greens are wishy washy and mock them, it's time for greens to call out how wishy washy the bullshit mainstream economists spout is wishy washy, that endless growth in a finite world is away with the fairies, cargo cult thinking, and that both austerity and keynesian solutions are merely raindances to the growth god performed by brainwashed zombies.<br />That no country is going to pay off their sovereign debt because growth (worldwide) is over.<br /><br />Instead of allowing others to mock them, it is the greens that should be doing the mocking and belittling. <br /><br />As far as creating millions of agricultural jobs I agree, I really admire what russia has done with it's Dashas, looking at the policies Russia has followed I find it hard to believe that they haven't been preparing for a peak pil scenario for the last 15 years. All their sovereign debt is paid down, they've been promoting small scale organic farming for years, giving citizens free land to grow crops on, resisting foreign corporate takeover of their agricultural industry, resisting the GMO corporate monopoly.<br /><br />When I see the bizarro world of the British press caking Putin an authoritarian dictator I have to question what the hell these people are smoking, if being authoritarian is doing what your people want you to do against the will of foreign corporate interests, and being democratic is to be hated by your own population and going against their will and selling all their assets to a foreign hegemon's corporation empire, I'll take the "dictatorship" over "democracy" any day, and I'll take my acres of free land and my Dasha too.Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-72297212621253037512015-03-18T08:00:05.411+00:002015-03-18T08:00:05.411+00:00I saw this documentary when it came out, and indee...I saw this documentary when it came out, and indeed this was the first time I got an idea as to what permaculture is about.<br /><br />A resource war is all we need!<br /><br />I had the impression you were a much older man, probably my age! :-)<br /><br />I was at a meeting yesterday about charity funding,and the thoughts came into my mind: "What will the young ones do? What must we focus on to direct our resources best?"<br /><br />The only asnswer is to ficus on devising sustainable/resilient systems, but the overarching political will seems to be Business as Usual.<br /><br />Certainly there is a need to hold it all together, while Plan B is made real, but there is no material thread from the government that we need to steer a new path, and sharply. But to say so outright would scare the voters off?<br /><br />As the IoW talk I gave, there were a few people of around 30 or so, and they were looking toward agroecology and permaculture as a viable way to arriving at a viable future plan, while creating millions of new and sustainable jobs.<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-71167295010404419122015-03-17T19:04:27.695+00:002015-03-17T19:04:27.695+00:00I have been reading quite a bit about permaculture...I have been reading quite a bit about permaculture techniques recently, never been much into gardening thus far, but I have been reading some of Charles Dowdings books recently and am going to implement his no dig technique this year.<br /><br />I came across a BBC made documentary about peak oil and permaculture, I always presumed it BBC policy to ignore the subject, I guess it somehow slipped through the cracks<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixx1c3RSw_8<br /><br />The other major concern of mine is the coming resource war with Russia the US seems intent on provoking, and looking at California drying up and the US massive debt it's not hard to see where the pressures to do so are coming from, being under 30 I'm well in conscription age and don't much fancy fighting a futile and resource wasting war against a people I have nothing against.Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-8792225128159708772015-03-17T16:54:12.133+00:002015-03-17T16:54:12.133+00:00Hi Michael,
as you say it is quite unexpected to ...Hi Michael,<br /><br />as you say it is quite unexpected to give an actual date.<br /><br />2020 is not far away now. US shale production will peak before then, which is where the only growth has come in recent years.<br /><br />Yes, I was looking to a global peak by 2020, with Russia a part of that production limit.<br /><br />My wife and I are doing a Pemaculture Design Course, which we finish this coming weekend.<br /><br />It might be useful as a means to approach the coming (looming) post oil age? But I don't kid myself it's going to be a smooth ride down Hubbert's peak!<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-26514342272930697072015-03-17T16:38:21.480+00:002015-03-17T16:38:21.480+00:00The Russian Energy Ministry is calling Russian pea...The Russian Energy Ministry is calling Russian peak oil for 2020.<br /><br />http://tass.ru/en/economy/783175<br /><br />Quite transparent of them to put a date on their oil peak. IIRC in that cafe scientifique recorded you had Russia's peak in that kind of time frame. Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-17892338823193835212015-02-26T08:41:50.886+00:002015-02-26T08:41:50.886+00:00Hi Mark,
that's interesting. Certainly much o...Hi Mark,<br /><br />that's interesting. Certainly much of the oil to be recovered in the future will be of the "heavier" kind, probably containing more sulphur, metals etc., and a new swathe of refineries will need to be built to process it.<br /><br />So, there may be an overall global) problem with refining capacity. <br /><br />There is a field in Saudi that was mothballed for years, which has its own specific refinery, as it is full of metals and other impurities which must be removed before the oil can be refined.<br />Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-45624119788304277282015-02-26T02:17:39.620+00:002015-02-26T02:17:39.620+00:00I don't know if this relates to peak oil but t...I don't know if this relates to peak oil but there is definitely peak oil refining capacity. As we all know gas prices have been dropping for the last several months but like clockwork one of the main refineries in Southern California experience a "major malfunction" which caused gas prices to dramatically increase. The major refinery owners always claim that government regulation hamper increasing capacity but why would they use their considerable influence to produce loosen regulations and proudce more gasoline when they make much more money in keeping supplies on a short leash? Am I a conspiracy nut to say that if there is an economic incentive to keep oil supplies tight and retard the development of alternative fuels we will always be in the grip of peak oil.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03878130453027537338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-48801110254475963242015-02-05T15:53:52.749+00:002015-02-05T15:53:52.749+00:00It's a bit depressing!
Well, there are 5.8 GJ...It's a bit depressing!<br /><br />Well, there are 5.8 GJ of energy in a barrel of oil, so at 3.8 l per U.S. gallon, that's 1.39 x 10^8 J.<br /><br />Dividing by 500 hours gives 278,000 J/h, and so dividing that by 3,600 s/h gives 77.2 J/s = W. I think an active person can work at a steady 200 W?<br /><br />So, you're probably right!<br /><br />It's more complicated than that, of course, because the fuel is petrol not oil (somewhat higher energy content), but a car loses a good 80% of the primary energy when the fuel is burned in a spark-ignition engine to actually propel a car.Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-12707213933901253472015-02-05T15:25:17.203+00:002015-02-05T15:25:17.203+00:00Thanks will download it and listen to it at the gy...Thanks will download it and listen to it at the gym tonight. <br /><br />What do you make of the 500 hours human labour in a gallon of oil estimate? A small car like a Citroën C1 gets 75mpg, I reckon given 21 days I could push one a lot further than that and I'm not gonna be winning any strongman competitions. Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-44351240600192781362015-02-05T14:03:46.753+00:002015-02-05T14:03:46.753+00:00This certainly shows the extreme "volatility&...This certainly shows the extreme "volatility" that we can expect, but with the overall trend to the "down" side, i.e. to a lower available energy condition.<br /><br />Did you watch his interview with Gail Tverberg (Gail the Actuary)?<br /><br />http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91503/gail-tverberg-beginning-end-oil-production<br />Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-62325104047350838702015-02-05T13:52:16.158+00:002015-02-05T13:52:16.158+00:00Chris Martenson lays it out pretty well here: http...Chris Martenson lays it out pretty well here: http://russia-insider.com/en/export/1782 with some fancy graphs. Another good one of his was reposted by the Post Carbon Institute here: http://www.postcarbon.org/keep-your-eyes-on-the-prize/<br /><br />Why someone would persist with such a regressive paywall system with such information is beyond my understanding, but then I fully agreed with Aaron Swartz's attempt to put the entire collection of JSTOR out on a torrent and I seem to be in a bit of a minority about that.Michael Stephensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098657991123067485noreply@blogger.com