tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post7486511036146710636..comments2024-03-29T06:38:18.116+00:00Comments on Energy Balance: Shall Coal be Crowned King?Professor Chris Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-49225834793032787632006-11-25T15:23:00.000+00:002006-11-25T15:23:00.000+00:00Hi Martin,
you've raised some very central points...Hi Martin,<br /><br />you've raised some very central points here (in your two postings), and I thank you for that. I think the most important fact is there is actually far more coal available than I have accounted for in my calculations. That much, I find reassuring as the small U.K. reserve particularly appeared to me depressingly low! So, it is a matter of resource vs reserve, and as you say, more coal will be found as the price goes up. For instance, the former USSR has 6 trillion tonnes and China 1 trillion, though not in mine company holdings as yet. So, 10 trillion tonnes worldwide doesn't sound ridiculous, does it? Quite right, the pixies didn't nick that 190 billion tonnes of coal from the British (I have found an article confimring what you say), and 45 billion tonnes could apparently be got using conventional technology. So, by simple arithmetic, we can supply all our coal and oil from coal for about 200 years. It does mean intriducing a huge new mining infrastructure and if that is intended, surely "they" whoever, ought to be getting on with it. I will post another article with more of these details and some new (more optimistic) figures.<br /><br />True, in the good old days of British coal, say back in the late 1800's, oil was not used as the extractive energy source. Then, they used coal to drive pumps, pit-cages, and surface machinery. Down below it was pit ponies, men (a few women) and children... until the law was changed so they had to be at least 12 years old before they could send them down. I suppose we could always send the little buggers down again, if times got hard enough? Seriously though, there is no mandatory need for oil to mine coal, I agree. Sure, we could now divert electricity made from other sources as you say, or indeed use the coal itself since there is plenty of it (in principle).<br /><br />Right, I agree about the efficiency of coal fired plants, energy "out" is about a third. Some of the new integrated clean coal(gasification) systems reckon they can get up to 50%, but they are technically a lot more complex. and expensive to install ($1500 per kilowatt of generating capacity is a figure I have seen), which implies about $1.5 billion for a 1 GW plant? That sounds a lot.<br /><br />Your sums certainly look convincing, and the only obstacle I see to introducing an integrated infrastructure as you say, is initial outlay costs. Providing 15 - 20% of oil that we don't have to import would be a hell of a lot, and has everything to recommend it!<br /><br />You say that the most pessimistic predictions are that there will be as much "conventional" oil produced in 2050 as in 1970? I would like to believe that, but I don't understand where it comes from. What I mean is that we are burning somewhere over 30 billion barrels of oil every year. O.K., I see that 2010 (about now) is half-way between 1970 and 2050, so on a Hubbert symmetric "bell-curve" what you say sounds reasonable. But, there is increasingly less of the light crude that is most easily got and used. If there is one trillion barrels left in the ground we will have used that up by 2050: 30 billion x 40 > 1 trillion? So, unless there is more or more can readily be extracted from some other source, still keeping to an acceptable EROEI, supply will begin to dwindle before then. Personally, I hope there is a lot more than that down there, and the "pixies" you refrred to can go on dancing forever, but I doubt it. However, producing 20% of our oil from coal and if we got cracking to do so ASAP, would certainly ease our slide down the steep side of the peak.Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.com