tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post963431689859531563..comments2024-03-13T18:55:49.391+00:00Comments on Energy Balance: “Peak Oil” is Nonsense… Because There’s Enough Gas to Last 250 Years.Professor Chris Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-68371382776750884292013-01-25T14:51:58.974+00:002013-01-25T14:51:58.974+00:00Hi John,
good to hear from you. Yes, that was a f...Hi John,<br /><br />good to hear from you. Yes, that was a few years ago, just before the economic melt-down, which some argue was triggered by the massive oil-price hike.<br /><br />I have the gut-wrenching feeling that Dr Morgan is probably right. The falling energy return almost certainly means that "recovery" is never going to happen. The globalised world then will unravel, and the only hope that I can envisage is that while global growth will become related to history, growth at the local level is possible. But this means the loss of the conventional global economy, and in its place a system based on (smaller-scale) community self-reliance (resilience), which is the basis of the Transition Town movement.<br /><br />As Noel Coward put it, "There are bad times around the corner."<br /><br />http://www.lyricsoncall.com/lyrics/noel-coward/there-are-bad-times-just-around-the-corner-lyrics.html<br /><br />What is to come, scares the hell out of me. Probably I was alluding to the likely consequences of peak oil, back in 2008 to George Galloway. What I find most unnerving is how rapdily the change seems to be occurring, and the recent claims that peak oil is nonsense - because of all that can be had through fracking, oil sands, heavy oil, oil shale, etc. - are just a smokescreen to an undeniable reality.<br /><br />Best wishes,<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-19695213429902503022013-01-25T14:24:57.410+00:002013-01-25T14:24:57.410+00:00Hello Chris,
I first heard about you while listeni...Hello Chris,<br />I first heard about you while listening to George Galloway's radio show in Jne 2008 when you explained the concept of Peak Oil. I became very interested and have read your blog on & off since then.<br /><br />Have you seen Thomas Pascoe's latest article and more importantly, Chapter 5 of Dr Tim Morgan's report for Tullet Prebon? <br /><br />Here: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100022487/the-death-of-the-west-the-bad-news/<br /><br />and the Morgan report:<br />http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/TPSI_009_Perfect_Storm_009.pdfJohnWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-67353464266677693442013-01-03T08:04:44.705+00:002013-01-03T08:04:44.705+00:00Hi Ken,
I thought not! I was being a tad ironic, ...Hi Ken,<br /><br />I thought not! I was being a tad ironic, but for the benefit of anyone else, I stressed the main points. :-)<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-86875366703834043052013-01-02T22:50:36.577+00:002013-01-02T22:50:36.577+00:00Chris...you know I would never say that about you ...Chris...you know I would never say that about you ;-)<br /><br />Yeah, the Daily Mail article.Trimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03877869192567715170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-75458178724721244632012-12-14T08:31:59.046+00:002012-12-14T08:31:59.046+00:00Not sure if you mean that I'm writing BS or th...Not sure if you mean that I'm writing BS or the Daily Mail is, Ken.<br /><br />But taking the statement you have in italics at face value, Peak Oil is not the same as Peak Fossil Fuel. I have no doubt that fossil fuels - coal, gas (conventional and shale), and oil (conventional and the various unconventional sources) - has yet to peak.<br /><br />Peak oil is the year of maximum production of conventional crude oil. Once this - the cheap and easily got stuff - peaks, an enlarging hole in production will occur.<br /><br />Whether or when overall oil production peaks depends on whether that hole can be filled by the unconventional sources.<br /><br />The timing of this will determine if conversion over to gas for transportation can be done in time to avoid any inconvenience. That said, since we are principally talking about a crisis in liquid fuels, moving the world's billion road vehicles over to run on gas is likely to be a considerable and lengthy undertaking.<br /><br />This chart was drawn-up by the EIA 3 years ago: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-12-09/the-one-chart-about-oil-s-future-everyone-should-see<br /><br />And if anyone is backing Lord L. I have no idea, but no one is paying me, I can assure you of that.<br /><br />Chris<br />Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-9554028053849721482012-12-14T05:00:26.709+00:002012-12-14T05:00:26.709+00:00"The bottom line is that, contrary to the pea..."The bottom line is that, contrary to the peak oil fantasists, fossil fuels are going to become more available, not less."<br /><br />Wow, what BS that article is...who is backing that kinda nonsense?<br /><br />Ken<br />S/V Trim<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-37257452724944282172012-12-13T09:15:59.575+00:002012-12-13T09:15:59.575+00:00I like the suggestion by LeftLibertarian that Lord...I like the suggestion by LeftLibertarian that Lord L should fill-up with gas, because this alludes to the nitty-gritty of the task that would be needed to convert the vast fleet of vehicles to run on natural gas rather than liquid fuels refined from crude oil.<br /><br />Even if we take the "100 years worth of gas" for the U.S. figure as being true, if the gas is used to replace coal in power stations and to run heavy vehicles alone, the figure falls massively, to about half that; and if the amount of gas is really only 20 years worth or so, any claims to an imminent "energy independence" are hardly credible, since that amount of gas would be got through in a little more than 10 years - and that's even if the engineering could be done to convert power stations and trucks to run on gas, rather quickly.<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-17434045789167350192012-12-13T09:09:08.406+00:002012-12-13T09:09:08.406+00:00Hi Sandra,
do you know off-hand what the EROEI is...Hi Sandra,<br /><br />do you know off-hand what the EROEI is for shale gas or shale oil extraction? I've seen figures of 6, but they seem to vary quite a lot depending one exactly the procedure is being done, and how the costing is made.<br /><br />I know that actual conventional C plus C production has been pretty much flat for the past 7-8 years, and light crude peaked in 2005. The current reference to "liquids" obfuscates the reality, and I wonder if that is a deliberate plan?<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-77144371540997574792012-12-12T21:49:09.398+00:002012-12-12T21:49:09.398+00:00Hi Chris
Yes that was me. I just remembered watch...Hi Chris<br /><br />Yes that was me. I just remembered watching `The Day the Earth Stood Still` on Sunday evening, we may never know if such a scenario would play out.<br /><br />I'm currently reading The New Industrial Revolution by Peter Marsh and the current chapter is very much along the line of your talk. The Environmental Imperative. It is good to read what some big companies are actually trying to do to reform their methods of manufacturing.<br /><br />My email devils advocate@open enterprise community.com well any email going to any of my URLs will come direct to me :) via google . I'll keep an eye open on my mobile telephony device.<br /><br />I will certainly provide links to your blog website and book, by all means<br /><br />Gratefully<br /><br />MatthewJohnRitchie@OpenECommunity TWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11666642609946122778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-53896280426671680612012-12-12T17:59:21.970+00:002012-12-12T17:59:21.970+00:00I think he should go ahead and fill up his automob...I think he should go ahead and fill up his automobile with naturalgas and let us know how it goes.LeftLibertarianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00658939383725543092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-25639843290840806082012-12-12T17:30:55.787+00:002012-12-12T17:30:55.787+00:00Excellent summary of reality. My only minor quibbl...Excellent summary of reality. My only minor quibble is your assertion that horizontal drilling and hydro fracturing have kept the price down and made the shale plays economical. We have practiced both technologies for decades. They are not cheaper. The thing that made the shale plays temporarily economical is simply the high price of oil - which comes from the inexorable slowdown in conventional oil production worldwide.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783334970243449386noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-67569226840222730612012-12-12T09:28:50.958+00:002012-12-12T09:28:50.958+00:00Hi Matthew,
good to hear from you. No, "devi...Hi Matthew,<br /><br />good to hear from you. No, "devil's advocate" is always fine... you were the guy talking about biological weapons to reduce the human population, right? Well, it's a thought!<br /><br />I have some issues over "ownership" of a number of the slides, but I can send you the attached which at least are mine and have "numbers" etc. I presume you will attribute them to me, if you use them on your blog or elsewhere?<br /><br />Can you give me an email address to send them to?<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />ChrisProfessor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-76683603302751632442012-12-11T21:38:52.681+00:002012-12-11T21:38:52.681+00:00I was at your talk on What do we do when oil runs ...I was at your talk on What do we do when oil runs out talk at Cafe Scientifique in Guildford. I would like to use your figures and images to push the word out further via my blog. At Uni I did electronics but within that was a course on Alternative Energy. From then my mind has been captured. Alas my dissertation was building and evaluating an electric motorbike and since finishing my studies I designed (from web instructions)(heavily altered) a 2.3m diameter set of blades. Cost curtailed the final hub and generator though not to mention the mast etc.<br /><br />I really ask, because I think these numbers etc need to be shared more so to change minds...<br /><br />Oh yup, I played Devils Advocate :) on the night. But in my defense, Tom Clancy and Steven King got there before me.<br /><br />Matthew John Ritchie<br /><br />Open enterprise community.com@OpenECommunity TWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11666642609946122778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-45556253626844271492012-12-10T11:30:15.735+00:002012-12-10T11:30:15.735+00:00Nicely put, and the comment too makes a very insig...Nicely put, and the comment too makes a very insightful case. I've just posted something related on my blog http://ergobalance.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/lord-nigel-lawson-in-daily-mail-peak.html in relation to Nigel Lawson's latest outpouring in The Daily Mail. These are very dangerous ideas - in fairness, Lawson isn't the only one coming out with this nonsense - but they reflect a fundamental crisis in misunderstandings about the matter of oil production. I note that your figures are even more pessimistic than mine, i.e. 11 years worth of "proved" reserves, although there will probably be more gas recovered, as you say, to make that 23 year figure that I was thinking of.Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-29643458908092661662012-12-09T15:55:32.168+00:002012-12-09T15:55:32.168+00:00This emerging belief that shale gas has removed th...This emerging belief that shale gas has removed the fossil fuel constraint (and if you believe the likes of Dieter Helm) has removed the necessity to fast track renewables) drives me nuts. Even Obama appears to subscribe to such nonsense, pace his comments on 100 years of gas. I blogged about this some months back here:<br /><br />http://climateandrisk.com/2012/02/10/shale-gas-part-iv-obama-and-the-pipe-dreams-of-presidents/The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.com