tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post6263104605824618266..comments2024-03-13T18:55:49.391+00:00Comments on Energy Balance: Methane Gas Hydrates - Vast Energy Resource or Ecological Disaster Awaiting?Professor Chris Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-4190558456367918192012-02-06T16:45:10.125+00:002012-02-06T16:45:10.125+00:00The danger with media promulgation of stories with...The danger with media promulgation of stories with the messages of "we can't do anything about peak oil/carbon emissions etc., and there's no point anyway because all this methane is being released and so we are doomed" is that this will become a self-propelled legacy. The forces of apathy are overwhelming!<br /><br />But whatever actions we need to take as a human society we need to begin them now.Professor Chris Rhodeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12060542089215379056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-544174424529544222012-02-04T22:11:48.592+00:002012-02-04T22:11:48.592+00:00Skeptical Science also did a great methane backgro...Skeptical Science also did a great methane background covering her work before the interview here:<br /><br /><br />http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberian-shelf-part1.htmlThe Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-75994625537634300072012-02-04T22:08:48.226+00:002012-02-04T22:08:48.226+00:00Methane is getting an awful lot of media attention...Methane is getting an awful lot of media attention recently, partly due to the work of Natalia Shakhova at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. For the first time, we are starting to get some hard data on releases. A good summary is here:<br /><br />http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2012/01/potential-for-methane-releases-in.html<br /><br />Shakhova was interviewed by Skeptical Science a couple of weeks ago, so your can get her current view:<br /><br />http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberian-shelf-part2.html<br /><br />She appears a little more cautious than Archer, but also stressing that we are at the very early stages of understanding what is going on. Here is the key exchange:<br /><br />"SkS: The recent reports of substantial releases of methane on the ESAS prompt us to ask how these observed emissions could detectably change global atmospheric methane concentrations and in what timeframe?<br /><br />NS: To date, we have only taken the very first steps down the long path of learning enough to answer this question. We officially reported only 8 Tg of methane was being released from the ESAS per year. This reported amount is <2% of the total annual global methane release and would not detectably change global atmospheric methane concentrations. However, we did not incorporate a few emission components – probably the most important ones - because of some uncertainties still remaining concerning their constraints. Newly obtained data, without question, indicate that annual methane emissions from the ESAS have been underestimated. To say how significant the underestimated components are, and to identify the mechanisms responsible for such substantial releases, we need to carefully analyze obtained data and, very likely, conduct further investigations on a broader scale. To be able to answer your question, which is a core question of our study as well, we need to establish at least a few observatory sites to trace dynamic atmospheric concentrations of methane; we need to develop a monitoring net to detect changes occurring in known plume areas; we also need to continue all-season observations in this region to study temporal and spatial variability in methane releases and the factors that determine this variability. We undoubtedly need to learn much more than we currently know. We call for the involvement of serious funding organizations to give this study the level of support that is consistent with the importance of this topic."The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19508699.post-40287695931735060562012-02-04T21:45:01.067+00:002012-02-04T21:45:01.067+00:00Chris. David Archer has published a couple of good...Chris. David Archer has published a couple of good summaries of the current literature on methane on www.realclimate.org. Archer is a computational ocean chemist, a leading figure in the IPCC and one of the most respected scientists working in this field. His wiki entry is here:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Archer_(scientist)<br /><br />The more general summary 'much ado about methane' is here:<br /><br />http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/much-ado-about-methane/<br /><br />Usually, with climate change most of the news is invariably bleak but after following the methane debate my sense is that is will not be a major player just because of the time scales involved. In Archer's words:<br /><br />"In short, if there was ever a good time to provoke a hydrate meltdown it would be now. But “now” in a geological sense, over thousands of years in the future, not really “now” in a human sense. The methane hydrates in the ocean, in cahoots with permafrost peats (which never get enough respect), could be a significant multiplier of the long tail of the CO2, but will probably not be a huge player in climate change in the coming century."<br /><br />Archer has also put up a simple online methane model for people to play around with here:<br /><br />http://forecast.uchicago.edu/Projects/methane.html<br /><br />Explanation here:<br /><br />http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/an-online-model-of-methane-in-the-atmosphere/<br /><br />And a worst case scenario here:<br /><br />http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/an-arctic-methane-worst-case-scenario/The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.com